Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.277412 0.313478 0.352587 0.398168 0.449864 0.506710 0.574011
2025-10-26 0.225652 0.273828 0.329991 0.400394 0.486427 0.588322 0.718440
2025-11-02 0.178098 0.230215 0.295009 0.381684 0.494927 0.638318 0.834407
2025-11-09 0.140982 0.193016 0.261611 0.358998 0.494303 0.676524 0.942056
2025-11-16 0.116788 0.168608 0.240726 0.348937 0.508150 0.735300 1.086670
2025-11-23 0.097663 0.148068 0.221816 0.338297 0.519060 0.791224 1.236462
2025-11-30 0.086550 0.137400 0.215393 0.344697 0.555771 0.890276 1.467563
2025-12-07 0.073329 0.121408 0.198401 0.331856 0.560082 0.939283 1.626950
2025-12-14 0.063801 0.109889 0.186750 0.325692 0.574006 1.005526 1.825901
2025-12-21 0.055910 0.099926 0.176183 0.319592 0.586766 1.071198 2.034373
2025-12-28 0.051345 0.095091 0.173709 0.327311 0.625222 1.188100 2.357140
2026-01-04 0.046094 0.088241 0.166618 0.325310 0.644916 1.272598 2.630914
2026-01-11 0.041880 0.082927 0.161965 0.327948 0.675408 1.385474 2.988570
2026-01-18 0.038779 0.079355 0.160191 0.336124 0.718647 1.531529 3.445068
2026-01-25 0.034125 0.071983 0.149812 0.324896 0.719198 1.588127 3.714880
2026-02-01 0.029663 0.064391 0.137938 0.308662 0.706207 1.613130 3.917016
2026-02-08 0.026601 0.059396 0.130911 0.302135 0.714240 1.687172 4.251815
2026-02-15 0.023834 0.054672 0.123832 0.294411 0.718223 1.752410 4.577675
2026-02-22 0.022385 0.052766 0.122857 0.301012 0.758146 1.911746 5.180063
2026-03-01 0.020001 0.048327 0.115386 0.290575 0.753539 1.958341 5.487728
2026-03-08 0.018223 0.045117 0.110422 0.285711 0.762631 2.042129 5.916770
2026-03-15 0.016634 0.042164 0.105691 0.280740 0.770642 2.124414 6.358530
2026-03-22 0.015819 0.041065 0.105475 0.287753 0.812793 2.308189 7.142584